recession? what recession?

For the past year to eighteen months, there has been talk of the impending recession. What I have puzzling over is, "Is it here yet? Or not?" Would it matter to you whether other people said there was a recession or not if you are still reaching your targets?

When I was working in a securities house, I spent a morning with the dealers on the US desk. The Head Dealer asked me if I wanted to see them make a run on the market. I was curious and said yes. He said, "Great, watch the screens". Over the next few minutes, he and his team phoned up a few large clients and told them that they recommended a particular stock to buy. All clients said yes, and in less than fifteen minutes, the stock price had gone up. Why? Because the clients thought it was a good deal, bought the stock and caused the stock price to rise.

For me, it begged the question, "Which came first? The clients thinking it was a good buy? Or the stock being a good buy in the first place?" What had really caused the stock price to rise was what the dealers and the clients were focusing on.

Group-Think

I think the recession is similar. Yes, there are "external factors", and I am not suggesting that you ignore them completely. However, let me stretch your imagination for a moment. Just suppose, that everyone decided to ignore the "external factors"; just suppose everyone just didn’t know…what impact would that have on the recession? Would it happen?

Now just suppose that everyone thinks that the economy is booming. How do they think and behave differently? Then, through their Reticular Activating System (see Issue 1), everyone starts to see evidence that the economy is booming. There is much to be said about external factors being determined by group-think or group-consciousness, which then impacts on our own behaviour and results.

So What?

Have you ever noticed a situation where someone has bucked the trend? Where others said it couldn’t be done, and yet they went ahead and did it? Jet Blue is one such company; it has bucked the trend. People said that creating a successful low-fare airline based in New York City would not work. Yet that is exactly what Jet Blue has done, and they have won award after award for their service. As they say, "Ten million customers later, we're proud to be proving the critics wrong."

SAS Institute is another such company. They are a software company, based in the States. In an industry where average staff turnover is well over 20%, SAS has a staff turnover of less than 5%. And in 2001, in a year that brought widespread layoffs in the US technology sector, SAS maintained full employment – in fact, they significantly expanded their sales force.

The question for you then, is, "What will you choose to focus on?" You can choose to focus on the thought that recession is happening and so business will be slow and tough, or you can choose to buck the trend and look out for the opportunities and all the evidence that (some) businesses are still booming, including yours.

There are still many opportunities to be had in a downturn. For example, when the stock market is low, that is the time to buy! If you wait until everyone else thinks that the market has already turned, you are behind the curve, not leading it.

When you think and feel positively about something, your belief systems are different, you make different decisions and you speak and behave differently. In short, it is our EXPECTATION of the result that determines the result itself.

Perhaps you may think that this is too idealistic or simplistic. But, if you knew that it would make a significant and positive difference to your stress levels and your results, wouldn’t you want to try it out?

Action Points

1. Stop reading the newspapers or watching the news for a week, two weeks, a month! What difference does it actually make to you and your day by the end of the week?

2. Rather than focusing and therefore looking for evidence to support your belief that there is a downturn in the market, start looking for the upsides. Register those – write them down.

3. Start looking for other evidence of other people and businesses doing well. Instead of dismissing it as being down to luck, begin to start expecting that for yourself too.

Quote

"Problems are only opportunities in work clothes" - Henry Kaiser

"There are no facts, only interpretations" - Friedrich Nietzsche

"Every problem has a gift for you in its hands" - Richard Bach

"We have been taught to believe that negative equals realistic and positive equals unrealistic" - Susan Jeffers

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